Process Owner: Torrey Grant
Date Last Updated: April 2024
SOP Link: HERE
Executive Summary
This SOP walks through the steps to generate a statistically-modeled forecast for account teams, if a novaForecast is not an option.
Deliverable Details
Method: DataRobot MMM
Input: Daily historical Revenue & Spend
Output: Monthly holistic Revenue by Month; estimated supporting Ecomm KPIs
Standard Operating Procedures
Account team works with the Planning Team (led by Tim Ryan) to develop a media plan for the desired forecast timeframe
Submit a media plan request here if needed
Project Owner fills out this Forecast Request form
DI will be in touch with the Project Owner regarding any additional questions/requests for information
Turnaround is typically between 3-7 business days
In the forecast output template:
DI team completes steps 1 & 2
CS team completes steps 3 & 4
Optimizations & Interpreting Results
The output reflects the predicted revenue generated from the provided media plan (channel, tactic, and seasonal flighting)
Base media plans off of historical MMTs that have been run for your client
“Ideal” spend distribution will reflect incremental impact determined by MMTs
Step 1 in the forecast results template
Step 2 in the forecast results template reflects an approximate breakdown of new versus returning orders and sales
Once the forecast output is returned, additional “Scenarios” can be created by applying Lifts to ecommerce funnel KPIs in the “Step 4: Opportunity Analysis” section on the main “Results & Adjustments” tab. Lifts can be applied to:
First-time CVR
First-time AOV
Returning CVR
Returning AOV
Repeat Customer %
Any lift should be backed up with logic and an implementation plan to optimize your marketing program which will generate the predicted lift
I.e. “10% increase in First-Time AOV achieved by more prominent showcasing of product bundles in advertising campaigns, in addition to CRO kicking off in April” etc
Goals/Targets can be adjusted in the “Step 3: Client Goals” section for Revenue, CPA, and ROAS if needed
Duplicate the Results & Adjustments tab to create additional “Scenarios”
Project Owner can request to align with the DI team internally or loop the DI team with the client to discuss results / implications of the forecast output (consult with the DI team before scheduling a call to review with the client, if needed). Continue forecast iterations with the DI team until AM / AD and client are satisfied with the output.
Sample Output
Feel free to experiment entering lifts with this Sandbox Forecast !
Additional Helpful Links: